• US Dollar Index tumbles to around 101.25 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
• Americans voted in midterm elections on Tuesday, which will determine who controls Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.

US Dollar Index (DXY) faces some selling pressure near 101.30 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. Traders will closely monitor the US midterm election outcomes later in the day for fresh impetus.

Yields fell across the curve, with the 2-year treasury yields dropped five basis points (bps) to 4.566%. Benchmark 10-year yields were down six bps to 4.90%.

Americans are voting in midterm elections that will deliver a verdict on President Donald Trump's second term. Polls have closed in some early states. According to live data from the Decision Desk HQ, election results have been called in 201 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, with Democrats securing 124 seats and Republicans winning 77.

Meanwhile, Democrat Jon Ossoff has won the US Senate race in Georgia, securing a second term and fending off a challenge from Trump-backed Mike Collins. The state is crucial for Democrats to retain as part of their quest to reclaim control of the Senate.

“Early headlines and prediction markets are suggesting a rising probability of a blue wave,” said Andrew Ticehurst, a senior rates strategist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Sydney. “That scenario is generally regarded as being negative for the dollar and positive for US Treasuries. Markets are reacting consistently with that in early Asia trading.”

US midterm elections FAQs

The US midterm elections are the federal elections held halfway through a president's four-year term. Voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, about one-third of the Senate, and, in many states, governors and other state and local officials.

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Federal law sets it as the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Early voting and mail voting are already under way in many states.

They decide which party controls each chamber of Congress for the last two years of President Donald Trump's term. The majority party sets the legislative agenda, chooses committee leaders and, in the Senate, controls confirmations of judges and senior officials.

No. The president is elected every four years; the next presidential election is in November 2028. Midterms are often seen as a referendum on the sitting president's party, which historically tends to lose House seats.

Most analysts expect a modest, short-lived reaction in the US Dollar rather than a lasting trend. A divided Congress is widely seen as the base case and is partly priced in. Treasury yields may react more noticeably to the results. Outcomes that raise expectations of fiscal stimulus tend to lift yields and the US Dollar, while gridlock that limits new spending can pull both lower. Political friction, such as funding or debt-ceiling standoffs, can also briefly lift the Dollar as a safe haven. Over six to twelve months, growth and Federal Reserve policy matter more than the vote.

US stocks have historically been weak before midterms and strong after them. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 12 months after every midterm election, 19 out of 19, with an average gain of about 15%. Analysts link the pattern to uncertainty fading once results are known. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, and some strategists note that high valuations in 2026 could test the streak.

Markets have often welcomed a divided government because gridlock makes sweeping changes to taxes, spending and regulation less likely. Under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has historically done well in years following midterms that split control of Congress. The risks are funding deadlines, debt-ceiling fights and congressional investigations, which can add short-term volatility.

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.