Big Three automaker Ford (F) is on deck to report second quarter results on Tuesday, with investors focused on whether management follows rival General Motors (GM) in lifting its full-year outlook and how deep the softness in electric vehicle demand runs across the lineup.
For the quarter, Ford is expected to report automotive revenue of $44.72 billion, per Bloomberg consensus, with adjusted EPS of $0.36 on adjusted EBIT of $2.15 billion. That would translate to an adjusted EBIT margin of 4.3%.
The bigger question hangs over guidance. After its Q1 report, Ford raised full-year adjusted EBIT guidance to $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion (prior guidance was $8.0 billion to $10.0 billion), matching GM's guidance boost of $500 million.
Analysts and investors may expect Ford to raise its outlook again, just as GM did last week. GM said its updated guidance made key assumptions, including pricing up around 0.5%, EV losses improving by $1 billion to 1.5 billion, regulatory benefits of $500 million to $700 million, gross tariff costs of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, and commodity inflation (including DRAM) of $1.5 billion to $2 billion, among others.
On spending, Ford is expected to model capital expenditures of $9.82 billion for the year, in line with the company's prior guidance range of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion. Ford had also warned that its 2026 first-half EBIT would be lower than the second half, as temporary aluminum sourcing for its F-Series pickups weighs on costs before production normalizes late in the year.
In terms of electrification, Ford has gone all in on a new EV platform built around smaller, cheaper vehicles, meant to be profitable early in the product cycle, a pivot away from first-gen products like the Mustang Mach-E and the now-canceled F-150 Lightning. But near-term EV demand has dropped sharply due to the loss of federal tax credits.
Earlier in the month, Ford reported a 10.3% drop in second quarter US sales to 549,200 vehicles as electric vehicle demand tumbled, F-Series and SUV volumes slipped, and the automaker worked through the discontinuation of two models.
The quarter was down across most of the lineup, and first-half sales fell 9.6% to just over 1 million vehicles. Ford noted that, excluding the Escape and Lincoln Corsair phase-outs and a 69% cut in daily rental sales, Q2 sales would have risen an estimated 0.5%.
Despite this, Ford said its estimated June retail market share rose 0.2 percentage points to 12.3%.
If Ford matches GM's move and raises guidance, investors may look past the volume declines. Maintaining current guidance may indicate that the F-Series franchise's health hasn't fully recovered or that cost control with regard to inflation and warranty expense could be better.
Pras Subramanian is Lead Auto Reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.
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