• Make Miliband chancellor, ex-chief Treasury adviser tells Burnham

• John Harris: Without a good revival plan, Burnham cannot succeed

In politics, timing and luck matter. Tony Blair had astounding good fortune, benefiting from goldilocks economic conditions and a weak opposition. Others have taken charge in tougher times: in the 1970s Harold Wilson faced a global energy crisis, as have the last four occupants of No 10.

As Andy Burnham prepares to replace Keir Starmer, there are clear economic headwinds for the prime minister-presumptive.