Treasury Yields Keep Rising. Can the Economy Keep Up?
Major bond markets are under pressure thanks to massive AI debt sales, fiscal woes, and inflation concerns.
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Gilts Too Distracted for Good News
Prime Minister Burnham presented UK government plans that should help ease gilt investors' concerns about political risks. For now, US rates and energy costs continue in the driver's seat, offering little relief for gil…
Real Yield Rise Is Not That Mysterious
Nasa is releasing a steady stream of stunning pictures of the Moon and Earth taken by the astronauts on its Artemis II Moon mission.
Bond Yields Are Surging: What It Means for Stocks, Gold, and the US Dollar
Gold prices are facing a critical test at the start of September as a renewed global bond sell-off puts pressure on non-yielding assets.
Treasury Jitters Are Rising, Yet the Real Pressure Is Building in Diesel
Early trading shows the Dow down around 0.3%. The S&P 500 is nearly unchanged. The Nasdaq is inching higher. This comes after yesterday’s pullback, when both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq retreated from record highs. Rising oi…
Bond Markets Are Screaming, and Every Asset Class Should Be Listening
Stocks of the largest U.S. companies plunged 10% in one week late last year and closed flat for 2015. The selloff hit investors in the high-flying market for Chinese stocks with a whopping 25% drop from the April high a…
Rates Outlook: Asymmetric Relationship Between Oil and Rates
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 challenged much of the common Western understanding of Russia. How can the world better understand Russia? What are the steps forward for Western policy? The Eura…
Rates Outlook: Time Not on France’s Side
Kylian Mbappe’s France continue their quest for the world title, facing Lamine Yamal’s Spain in a blockbuster semifinal.
Rates Outlook: Global Long-End Gets Some Relief From the BoE
The BoE today updated its approach to shrinking its balance sheet and the result today is a further drop in gilt yields with the 10 yr yield now down 8.5 bps. They will halt for the next 6 months its asset sales and thi…
Has the Bond Market Already Done the Fed’s Job?
The market spent this week chasing a different driver almost every day. Inflation refused to cool enough for the Federal Reserve to relax, Europe moved closer to another rate hike, and oil stopped trading purely on war …
Bond Market Turmoil Is a Warning Shot for Every Investor
1. AI selloff looks like a reset, not a regime break: The selloff is painful but still concentrated in crowded AI and tech winners, rather than showing broad recession stress, disorderly yields or an earnings collapse. …
Sterling Funding Friction Rises as Gilt Duration Trades Meet Geopolitical Headwinds
The United Kingdom’s gilt market is entering a period of heightened sensitivity, where the interplay between duration risk and sterling funding conditions is becoming a primary source of volatility. While global headlin…
The Cleaner Fed Trade Is in SOFR, Not Treasuries
The Federal Open Market Committee primarily adjusts the stance of monetary policy through its target range for the federal funds rate. We discuss whether the fed funds rate remains the right operating target for short-t…
Weak Buyback and Strong Auctions: Bullish Signals for Bonds
Last Thursday’s Treasury buyback operation was deemed “weak” in the financial media as it bought back just $5.19 billion, less than the $6 billion investors had anticipated. A buyback succeeds only if current bondholder…
Treasury Yield Premium Surges Amid Inflation and Debt Worries
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has touched roughly 5.3 percent in the past week, a level not seen in nearly two decades. Global counterparts in Europe, the U.K., and Japan have climbed to similar heights.
Are Rising Treasury Yields Part of Warsh’s Inflation Strategy?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is in the midst of a historic effort to tamp down long-term Treasury yields. He may also be complicating the work of his counterpart at the Federal Reserve, Chairman Kevin Warsh.
S&P 500: Treasury Yield Breakout Signals the Potential for More Upside
August 5, 2026, 3:53 AM EDT.IPOs such as SpaceX and ChangXin Memory Technologies have generated worldwide interest, particularly across the tech and AI sectors. Still, with founders trying to maximize returns and invest…
Rates Outlook: The Heat Ratchets Higher
WASHINGTON — Citing a brighter economic outlook, the Federal Reserve raised its key short-term interest rate Wednesday but maintained its forecast for a total of three hikes this year amid still-modest inflation.
Bond Market’s Verdict on Washington Is Turning Harsher
If the Supreme Court rules President Donald Trump's International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariffs are illegal, U.S. companies would not only be in line to receive tariff refunds, but also billions of dolla…
Bessent Brings a Pea Shooter to a Trillion-Dollar Bond Market
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's plan to suppress long-term borrowing costs through larger-scale Treasury buybacks is facing an unforgiving test from the market. The Treasury Department announced Wednesday it wou…
Bond Market Rejects Bessent’s Buyback and Sends Yields Higher
TL;DR: The US 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.81% to a three-year high near 4.85%, yet the Dollar Index is sitting near support instead of rallying — a divergence that suggests markets increasingly care about wheth…
Rates Outlook: Sterling’s Hawkish Pricing Still Looks Overdone
HSBC warns the Bank of England's Thursday rate decision could deliver a hawkish split vote, with some members potentially voting for a rise, though sterling upside looks limited with 60bps already priced.
Bessent’s Buybacks: Will Treasury Reignite the US Dollar Debasement Trade?
SINGAPORE, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin rose above $80,000 to hit a more than three-month high on Tuesday as a soft U.S. dollar, in the wake of the moves by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to calm the bond market, revive…
The Long Bond March Is Rewriting the Old Market Playbook
The post-crisis era trained markets to treat exceptionally low bond yields as normal and anything approaching 5% as a threat. History suggests the opposite. The US 10 year yield may be higher than at almost any point in…