Seven core members meet online as the alliance puts output adjustments on ice until the new year
OPEC+ is standing still for now. The producer alliance has agreed in principle to leave its December output targets unchanged, according to Reuters, which cited three people familiar with the matter. Policy shifts are on hold until next year, when the real bargaining over 2027 quotas begins.
The understanding was reached ahead of Sunday’s online meeting of seven core members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The backdrop is a market still recovering from conflict. Gulf producers are steadily lifting exports that were disrupted for months by the Iran war. Most of them are still pumping below their assigned targets because of that disruption, Reuters reported. So a freeze on paper carries less weight than it might, since several members are not yet producing at their allowed ceilings.
The group has already wound down one major restraint. In September, OPEC+ completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) cut first agreed in 2023. A second layer of cuts, about 2 million bpd and covering most members, stays in place through the end of 2026.
Holding December steady matches what the market expected. Reuters reported in July that OPEC+ was likely to stop adjusting targets after September and shift its focus to future quotas.
OPEC+ is expected to finish a review of members’ production capacities in the fourth quarter. The findings will set the baseline levels for 2027, which will drive how quotas are divided and how the remaining supply cuts are unwound. For a group that runs on negotiated shares, the baseline numbers are where the leverage lies.
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