JPMorgan JPM is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 earnings on July 14, before the opening bell. With operations spanning consumer and commercial banking, investment banking (IB), payments and asset and wealth management, the company's results are closely watched for insights into credit conditions, loan demand, capital markets activity and the broader health of the financial sector. Also, its performance is widely viewed as an early indicator of how other banks may have fared during the quarter.
JPM began 2026 on a solid note, with trading, IB and commercial loan demand driving first-quarter revenues to almost $50 billion. The company’s upcoming quarterly results will likely be robust despite rate uncertainty and lingering geopolitical headwinds. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues of $48.7 billion suggests an 8.5% year-over-year rise.
In the past week, the consensus estimate for second-quarter earnings has moved marginally lower to $5.52. This indicates an 11.3% jump from the prior-year quarter amid robust capital markets performance and decent loan demand.

JPMorgan has an impressive earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 7.36%.

Key Drivers of JPMorgan’s Q2 Performance

Net Interest Income (NII): The Federal Reserve has paused rate cuts and signaled a hike later this year amid persistently higher inflation. This has resulted in a favorable backdrop for banks, including JPMorgan. 
Building on the first quarter’s momentum, lending activity is likely to have strengthened further during the to-be-reported quarter. Per the Fed’s latest data, demand for commercial and industrial loans and consumer credit remained healthy in April and May, while real estate loan demand was relatively modest. Improving loan demand, coupled with easing deposit and funding costs, is expected to have provided meaningful support to JPM’s NII. 
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NII (reported) of $25.6 billion suggests a 10.4% increase on a year-over-year basis. 
IB Fees: After a record-setting first quarter, global deal-making activity moderated amid geopolitical uncertainty, persistent valuation gaps, slowing economic growth, elevated inflation and interest rates, and a stubbornly high backlog of private equity exits. Nevertheless, strategic buyers remained active, pursuing transactions aimed at enhancing scale, strengthening resilience and improving supply-chain security in response to the challenging operating environment. 
Hence, while global mergers and acquisitions (M&As) volume improved year over year, deal value declined as only a handful of big transactions dominated the space. Also, JPMorgan’s leadership in the space is likely to have aided advisory fees. 
The second quarter saw strong IPO activity and equity issuances, including a blockbuster mega offering from SpaceX and Google parent Alphabet Inc. Likewise, global bond issuance volume was solid, driven by corporate refinancing and infrastructure builds. Thus, growth in JPM’s underwriting fees (accounting for almost 60% of total IB fees) is expected to have been strong during the to-be-reported quarter.
Management expects IB fees to rise 10% or more year over year in the second quarter of 2026, benefiting from robust capital markets and advisory activities.
The consensus estimate for IB revenues (in the CIB segment) of $3.07 billion implies a rise of 14.5% from the prior-year quarter. 
Markets Revenues: Client activity and market volatility were strong in the second quarter, though both were less pronounced compared with the preceding quarter. Trading conditions were influenced by shifting expectations around artificial intelligence, persistent geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation concerns and a more hawkish stance from the Fed. Volatility was high in equity markets and other asset classes, including commodities, bonds and foreign exchange. Hence, JPMorgan is likely to have recorded robust growth in markets revenues (comprising nearly 20% of the company’s total revenues) this time around.
Management expects markets revenues to increase 11%, highlighting persistent high volatility and strong client demand across FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) and equities.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for equity markets revenues is pegged at $3.9 billion, suggesting a jump of 20% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus estimate for fixed-income markets revenues of $6.37 billion indicates growth of 12%. 
Mortgage Banking Fees: The second quarter was challenging for the mortgage banking business. It was characterized by elevated mortgage rates, hovering around mid-6.5%, and low affordability. While purchase volume faced pressure from inventory constraints, refinance activity has seen a slight boost. As such, JPMorgan is expected to have posted a modest increase in mortgage banking fees in the to-be-reported quarter.
The consensus estimate for mortgage fees and related income of $329.5 million implies a 9.2% fall from the prior-year quarter’s level. 
Expenses: JPMorgan’s plan to enter new markets by opening branches, which is already on track, along with efforts to expand the product suite, is likely to have resulted in an increase in operating expenses in the second quarter. Also, investments in technology to strengthen digital offerings might have led to higher costs.
Further, non-interest expenses are expected to have remained elevated in the second quarter, primarily due to higher compensation costs associated with robust trading and IB activity.
Asset Quality: After setting aside a modest amount for potential loan losses in the first quarter, JPMorgan is likely to have maintained a similar provisioning trend in the quarter under review. Although the period began amid concerns related to the Middle East conflict, oil price volatility and persistent inflation, the subsequent ceasefire helped drive a meaningful decline in crude prices. This, coupled with resilient economic growth and broadly stable credit conditions, is expected to have supported a decline in the company’s provision for credit losses.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for non-performing loans of $10.49 billion implies a 6.9% rise year over year. The consensus estimate for non-performing assets of $11.42 billion suggests a 9% increase.

What Our Model Unveils for JPMorgan

Per our proven model, the chances of an earnings beat for JPMorgan are high this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you can see below.
JPMorgan has an Earnings ESP of +1.77%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
JPM carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

JPMorgan’s Price Performance & Valuation Analysis

JPMorgan shares delivered a decent performance in the second quarter. Yet, the stock lagged behind Citigroup C and Bank of America BAC. Even the S&P 500 Index fared better.

Both Citigroup and Bank of America are slated to announce quarterly numbers on the same day as JPMorgan. 
JPM’s shares appear to be trading on par with the industry. The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price/earnings (P/E) of 14.37X compared with the industry’s 14.36X.

Also, JPM stock is trading at a premium compared with Citigroup and Bank of America. At present, Citigroup has a forward P/E of 11.92X, while Bank of America’s forward P/E is 12.32X.

JPMorgan’s Q2 Earnings: How to Approach JPM Stock?

JPMorgan is well-positioned to benefit from its scale, diversified business mix and leading market positions across key segments. Strategic acquisitions continue to bolster its financial performance, while regional branch expansion and cross-selling efforts should support future growth. Although these initiatives may keep expenses elevated, they also strengthen the bank’s competitive moat and long-term growth outlook.
Additionally, JPMorgan’s enhanced capital-return plans, including a $50-billion share repurchase authorization and a proposed 10% dividend increase, should bolster shareholder value. The company’s willingness to deploy up to $20 billion for strategically compelling acquisitions could also support long-term growth and profitability. Nevertheless, capital market volatility and persistently high mortgage rates may constrain fee income growth. These headwinds, combined with an evolving macroeconomic environment, could exert pressure on the company’s earnings.
Therefore, investors should closely watch management’s commentary on how geopolitical risk and market volatility affected performance and how the bank plans to navigate the current environment. Any revisions to JPMorgan’s 2026 guidance for NII, IB, non-interest expense and asset quality will be especially important given recent macro developments. Broader macroeconomic and policy trends that could materially shape the company’s performance trajectory should also be carefully considered.
Existing shareholders may hold JPM stock, given its strong fundamentals and proven resilience. Potential investors, on the other hand, should carefully weigh these factors and assess their risk tolerance before taking new positions.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.